Forex Waterfall Telegram Channel Review. Verified Trading Statistics & Results in 2024-2025
- Best Forex Signals Analyst & Expert
- Dec 31, 2025
- 4 min read
Free Signals Channel Review
Channel Name: Forex Waterfall
Full Years of Operation: 1
Number of Subscribers: 9725
Trading Style: day trading Trading Sessions: London and New York
Free Signals: 536
Win Rate: 39%
Period: 31.12.2024 - 31.12.2025
Pips of Profit: -9,600
Free Signals Analysis & Reviews
Average Profit per Signal: 50 pips
Markets: Gold
Average Holding Time: 8 hours
Average Profit a Week: -185 pips
Number of Signals a Day: 1-2
Signals Statistics
Trading Instrument | Win Rate (%) | # of Signals | Avg Profit (Pips) | Total Profit (Pips) |
XAUUSD | 46.2% | 44 | 47.5 | -228 |
XAUUSD | 41.9% | 46 | 47.5 | -502 |
XAUUSD | 38.6% | 44 | 47.5 | -583 |
XAUUSD | 35.6% | 45 | 47.5 | -858 |
XAUUSD | 32.6% | 46 | 47.5 | -1,305 |
XAUUSD | 37.8% | 45 | 47.5 | -1,063 |
XAUUSD | 42.2% | 45 | 47.5 | -763 |
XAUUSD | 40.0% | 45 | 47.5 | -975 |
XAUUSD | 35.6% | 45 | 47.5 | -1,260 |
XAUUSD | 38.6% | 44 | 47.5 | -895 |
XAUUSD | 43.2% | 44 | 47.5 | -470 |
XAUUSD | 39.5% | 43 | 47.5 | -698 |
12-Month Total | 39.1% | 536 | 47.5 | -9,600 |
Best Free Signals
XAUUSD | XAUUSD | XAUUSD | XAUUSD |
75 pips | 71 pips | 68 pips | 66 pips |
Worst Free Signals
XAUUSD | XAUUSD | XAUUSD | XAUUSD |
-124 pips | -118 pips | -111 pips | -107 pips |
Key Statistics Insights:
1. The Mathematical Guarantee of Loss
The official performance figures (39% Win Rate, 0.95:1 R:R) form a mathematically certain negative expectation over time. The expected value is calculated to be -17.9 pips per trade. This implies that, for each series of signals trailed with a constant lot size, a subscriber should expect to be losing close to 18 pips on average, no matter what the short-term winning streak may be. This is the most severe finding – the essential set of parameters is unprofitable.
2. Outliers Are Irrelevant to the Statistical Pattern
However, despite the presence of strong positive outliers (as much as +75 pips) and disastrous negative outliers (as low as -124 pips), their effects are overwhelmed by the regularity of the averages in their entirety. The law of large numbers (approaching 536 signals in a year) guarantees that the outcomes will revert to the mean: the average for the positive outcomes is +47.5 pips, while the average for the negative outcomes is -50 pips. Thus, it is clear that a few 'amazing' signals exemplified by the channel are mere random data points.
3. The Illusion of Activity vs. The Reality of Result
The trading channel offers a constant flow of trading (serving 1-2 signals per day), giving an impression that there is constant engagement and monitoring. Though this indicates constant trading, it implies a constant drain or bleed over time. The average weekly loss at -185 pips can be seen as an average loss of almost 4 average-sized trading losses every week.
4. The "Close Call" Win Rate is Psychologically Misleading
This win rate of 39% is numerically similar to what may be perceived as the "40-45%" zone that may appear to be just breakeven to a new trader. But together with the adverse R:R, such a small imbalance is disastrous. This is because on every 100 trades, the channel will win just 39 times but lose 61 times, and each win will be less than each loss. This strategy must improve its win rate to above 51.3% on the same average profit/loss if it is to make money, which it has not achieved during one complete year of trading.
The Bottom Line
"Forex Waterfall" - A Telegram channel that claims to provide day trading signals for the gold currency pair XAUUSD for free. Now, after one complete year and close to 10,000 followers, the statistics paint one picture and one picture only: this channel will guarantee that you lose money.
How It Works & The Reality:
It offers 1-2 trading signals daily during London sessions and 1-2 signals during New York sessions, with trades being held for 8 hours. Whilst this offers the impression of actively managed signals, there is a fundamental issue with the underlying trading performance figures. The trading style employed by the channel, boasting a 39% win rate with a Reward/Risk ratio of 0.95:1, is guaranteed to lose money long-term. A simulation carried out over 536 signals, 1 year worth, has verified this, with an average loss per trade of just short of 18 pips. The overall drawdown per year is -9,600 pips.
Key Findings:
Mathematical Certainty of Loss: The game plan here is negative. You will be losing money in the long run if you follow all the signals.
Activity Over Profitability: The continuous flow of signals hides a gradual but continuous loss of equity, at an average of -185 pips a week.
Outliers Are Deceptive: While the trading channel may feature an occasional winning trade of +70 pips, such results are just statistical noise. Most of the results are centered around the losing strategies, and potentially catastrophic losses to the tune of -124 pips or more are possible and do occur.
Verdict: Forex Waterfall is an example of a high frequency, low edge system that pretends to have expert knowledge by acting in a very active manner, yet is founded on a purely mathematical system that guarantees losses for its subscribers. The system has had only one year of operation with a sub-40% win rate.
Our Rating: Bad
Recommendation: Avoid. There is no sound trading strategy which would enable one to profit from such parameters. It is not cash that the users send, but they also send their capital by acting on the signals. Take care of your pips and invest in a strategy which can prove its positive expectancy, not something mathematically confirmed as a sinkhole.
